Monday, July 26, 2021

Heckman on Denmark vs the USA on Intergenerational Income Mobility

James Heckman on Inequality and Economic Mobility

Some comments on the econtalk podcast with James Heckman about his paper looking at intergenerational income mobility in Denmark vs the USA.  It seems it is reasonably close to that in the USA.

I’ve been following this debate for a long time and I feel I have a lot to say. This may not be the right forum so sorry.

First, I think Denmark is an odd selection. Italy and Spain have lower murder rates, less child abuse, and higher life expectancy. The difference in length of life between Italy and Denmark is about as big that difference between USA and Denmark. Also the Inuit (Greenland is part of Denmark like Puerto Rico is part of the USA). But the people talking about Denmark like the Government policies of Denmark and the Government of Italy and Spain are not so respected and they talk bout Denmark. If you rather talk up Italy and Spain you tend to not think it is there great Governments.

It seems that even since ancient times some have known that what people need to live a good productive life is wisdom. Like the wisdom in the Bible book of Proverbs, be diligent, save, don’t drink to much or do drugs too much etc.

Finally I am a UBI/NIT supporter because I think it can allow us to have a better welfare system and maybe even spend less Government money but some of my allies UBI/NIT supporters seem to think it will make the poor be much better people, that is, they’ll go and get better school, drink, commit less crime and take drug less. But IMHO there is only 1 reason to enact a UBI/NIT and that is to all the lowest earners among us to consume more goods and services and it might have corrosive effects among some of the poor. Even most of the poor today are richer than the middle class where in not so distance past so why think giving people more money will be revolutionary. Is it poverty that causes the lack of skill, drug use and crime or is it the lack of skill, drug use and crime that causes the poverty?

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Scams and Education

I have for maybe 40 years believed that to fall for some scams one has to have a certain level of education. Organic food being the one that comes easiest to mind. The scientists who study fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides acknowledge that they are very safe and have greatly helped mankind. Yet the among those with post secondary education organic food s are quite popular even while among the less educated they have little draw.

BUT I realized that I have not applied that to my own beliefs about governance.

I support a UBI but less educated working people seem to think it will lead to bad outcomes, to too many people not working and perhaps getting high and drunk first thing every morning.

I support full legalization of all drugs except antibiotics without prescription. That includes heroin and even fentanyl. I think legal companies would dose more accurately. But most people think this will lead to more death and abuse.

I'm sticking with may positions but with a little less confidence. 

Friday, May 14, 2021

Gun Control and Police

Many Democrats believe that 1-3 percent of police are corrupts/arrogant/racist etc. They also want more gun control which would need to be enforced by those police. 

So the assumption must be that the gains from more gun control laws would out weigh the costs of having he police we have enforce the laws by a good margin. 

I'd like to see their estimates of the costs of gun control particularly to young men and young black men.

Thursday, May 13, 2021

Female Education not Income is the Most Reliable Correlate of Low TFR

A comment on MarginalRevolution.com said:

 Female education is the most reliable correlate of low TFR


it looks like
 children get in the way of schooling AND school gets in the way having children, and that makes more educated women end up having fewer children and more educated women tend to be richer but it's not that they are richer.


I agree with the above comment and IMO it shows a lack of confidence in men and marriage. Especially when they are encouraged to study fields where there are well paid jobs, like accounting.  I understand that because the idea is so popular, it is very risky to go rogue.  Nevertheless I'm amazed at the attitudes toward this and the modern idea that getting pregnant and then marring the father is compounding the mistake, in my very conservative fundamentalist church. All the parents want their daughters to get a money earning education and I once brought up for discussion the idea that a girl getting pregnant and then marring the father is compounding the mistake and everyone agreed that it was indeed not good to "compound the mistake". I myself am not so sure, many men/families do well in such situation, but everyone else seemed all in and automatic on the modern idea.  My Grandfather sent back to relatives in Italy to send a suitable wife which they did and they had a good marriage, so I think marriage is more random that folks think anyway.

Interesting.

Disclosure I have no daughters just 2 sons.

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

David Goldhill's 3 Great Points

 David Goldhill make's 3 great points that I've not read elsewhere.

  • That emergency care is not so expensive to deliver. He says if you don't believe it, go to an emergency room and look around.
  • The fact that on an annual basis healthcare 90% of healthcare is purchased by 10% of people is not unlike many other products. Like homes, refrigerators, cars etc.
  • One out of five 90 year olds will have surgery on the year of their death, when no surgery is recommended for someone over 90 years old.
I believe he has said some wrong things also.

Here is an idea that fits with his view of healthcare. 

And here is the one guy trying to explain why we put up with the craziness in medical care.

Time for the Federal Government to Step in and Force California to Liberalize Building

Time for the Federal Government to step in and force California to liberalize building, it has the best weather in the USA. The Feds have the right under the the commerce clause. Governments in California are in effect restricting trade between states and denying people's right to build on their own land. 

The Feds also need to step in on stadiums and tax breaks to attract businesses.


Friday, April 30, 2021

Freddie deBoer Proposes Allowing Children to Drop Out of School at Age 12

Freddie deBoer proposes allowing children to drop out of school at age 12 

Wow drop out at age 12.

I like it but i'd guess upper class Democrats won't.

He goes not to lament the lack of family supporting jobs for those without school credentials. He claims there used to be those great factory jobs in the past but now there are no options for them. On that he is ignorant, in free to build areas, like my city Gainesville FL, blue collar high school dropouts can and do do better than those with their schooling ability ever did. My son hated school and after High School took a job as a laborer with a plumber. He now make about the median income of the USA and owns a home outright he is 27 and is close to having enough money to retire.

Restricting building is a double negative for High School dropouts. It eliminates the jobs of building and pushes up home prices and rents. It also creates jobs for lawyers fighting to get permission to build. 

It is the biggest Government sin of our time.  

Some evidence that dropouts can do great if they have a little wisdom and live in free to build areas:

The Amish generally drop out of school at 16 and do fine.

The Hasidic Jews do great on low income

Meanwhile many college grads struggle made worse by there debt. The student loan program being another bad sin of Government. (That and the 30 year mortgage.) Neither would not exists without Government backing.

DeBoer needs to get out an look at the world. Wisdom trumps smart even today.