Wednesday, October 19, 2022

From the MR Comments on Texas History

From comments on MarginalRevolution.com:

Luka 2021-12-01 00:48:42

I'm going to defend Texas, something I rarely get to do. Texas is extremely old, it's history goes back centuries. The name is Spanish and it was at one point part of the Spanish Empire and then independent Mexico. The indigenous people of the region were dominated by the fairly violent Comanches who were a persistent thorn in the side of both the Spanish and the Mexicans. Conflict between whites and natives long predates 1836. Some of the land confiscated seems to have been done before independent Texas.

When Mexico became independent they encouraged "Anglo" migration in part for economic reasons but also to counter the Comanches. Indeed, for as much as you may decry American treatment of indigenous peoples, of which there is much to decry, Mexico was fighting them until the 1930s when the American Indian wars were in effect closed by about 1890(a few minor raids happened after, but historians generally say the war was over in 1890). I've never really understood how the nations of Latin America have seemingly gotten a pass on their treatment of natives and land rights but my guess is that populations are just much more mixed so blame is harder to pinpoint.

On the issue of land and how it was acquired it should be acknowledged that while some land was taken via conquest or illegally seized in defiance of treaties from natives, an enormous amount of the American West and even colonial lands were simply purchased at prices natives willingly accepted absent military threat. I've read that about $800 million was spent by the Federal government alone from independence until around the end of the 19th century. Thats quit a bit more than was spent on Louisiana($15 million), Alaska($7.2 million), Gadsden ($10 million), Florida($5 million) and Mexico(even after the War the USA still paid them $15 million) combined.

From the column. "The book proudly defends the broader sweep of Texas history, including the taking of Texas from Mexico and then the absorption of Texas into the United States"

Thats a strange way of saying "Texas declared independence, later to voluntarily join the USA". Mexico under Santa Anna was headed toward military dictatorship and in many ways was already there. A number of other Mexican states were also in open rebellion under his rule. In the long run the history of Mexico makes it clear that leaving was the best route for Texas both economically and politically. The Mexican revolution(1 million+ dead) was perhaps more deadly than the American Civil War(~750K dead) and that was just one of many internal military conflicts they suffered, to say nothing of their lack of true democracy until 2000.

I think Texas has an interesting history, perhaps they need to tone it down with their state pride, they share many of the serious issues both the nation had in general, and the CSA in particular. Overall, not a bad column, I guess. Its just always surprising to see someone like Tyler, who is generally libertarian and usually pro-America embrace the more critical and revisionist historical take on the USA. Self reflection is good, but it has gotten to the point of self hatred in too many quarters.

Friday, September 23, 2022

The Decline in the Male Employment Rate

This has been an Econ topic of discussion the last few day:

Larry Summers: There is some social phenomenon which I suspect explains non work, non marriage, deaths of despair, general alienation and, I suspect, the rise of reactionary populism. It should be a major task of social science to understand it.


It seems like these are caused by the obvious things but that no one wants to acknowledge.

Non-work: Smaller and more affluent families are more willing and able to support a non-worker. Also black males have become a larger part of the population and at least since the 1960 have had a more sensible (Keynesian 15 hour work week) view of work leisure balance. 

Marriage: The most obvious reason for fall in marriage/rise single motherhood stands, women have better options now than staying with less desirable men.

I was talking to group of committed Christians recently and I mentioned that today if a girl gets pregnant people say she not make a second mistake, and surprisingly to me, they agreed that shoe shouldn't.

Even very religious people want their daughters to go to college, and not just to meat a nice husband but to build a career.

Deaths of despair:  Deaths of despair is IMHO a myth. While it's true that WV was number one in opioid deaths New Hampshire was number two. We should admit that some people really love to get high, some more that life itself. Robin Hanson has noted that drug overdoes deaths have doubled each decade at least since 1970 and maybe 1940.

Friday, September 16, 2022

James Kwak - Economism Should We Let Lawyers Run the Economy

Law professor James Kwak coined the term economism, contending that economists have too much influence in policy.
Economists who study interaction between supply and demand warned us that the legal (lawyer) method to suppression drug use wouldn't. Same with rent control
But you attack "economism",rather than an NIT/UBI just make it illegal to work for less that $x and it'll will work.

Kwak's attack on economists and "economism" says let's not go with people who study the economic trade offs but use the legal approach and just make what we don't want illegal. Make illegal to sell for less or more or at all. Not a good idea IMHO.

Thursday, September 15, 2022

More on Student Debt Forgiveness

This is in response to the discussion here of student loan forgiveness.

From here:

"Most low-income students attending full time, full year (86 percent) received some financial aid, and the average amount received by low-income students (calculated including those with no aid) was about $6,100."

So why not:

 - Keep and maybe increase Financial aid.

 - Prosecute lenders and schools that commit fraud.

 - Get the government completely out of the lending business.

 - Probably too many students are going to college reduce the acceptance rates to state schools.

BTW the trades do not always require any schooling beyond high school and can be very lucrative. It's often much more lucrative to be one of the smartest plumbers around, who can run a business, than an average person in a job that requires a college degree. 

Also, tuition rates in state schools is a state issue but with more financial aid maybe it should be higher, that is the affluent should pay the full costs of college, which BTW are amazingly high. Spending on college by states and students can and should be cut. Florida spends much less per student year than most states and so there is a model to follow.

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Social Security Beginnings

Links:

Why Is Social Security Regressive by Chris Pope.

The Twilight of Social Insurance also by Chris Pope

Both discus the beginnings of Social Security and how we arrived at the odd structure.

Some States spend Double what other state spend without noticeable Differences

Some states:

Look at Florida in figure 10 here, for education. Maybe more state governments should follow Florida's example.

Across US states, the min prison cost is in Alabama at $14K/yr, max is New York at $69K/yr. Do you doubt that the NY ones are nicer here? I really do not know how much worse it is in prisoon in Alabama verses New York.


Some state data on recidivism here.


Wednesday, August 31, 2022

College Loan Forgiveness

Before they Biden administration enacted loan forgiveness, I had been asking people if they'd take this deal:

Forgive $10K in college debt but with the agreement that congress starts to phase out the loan program by capping the money lent to say $5k/yr/student and lowering the cap by $1k every 4 years.

  • Plus no loans to students studying low demand majors
  • And no more loans for private schools except those in the top 200 colleges/Universities in post school job prospects?
  • Then maybe once all loans are private and disposable in bankruptcy no one will lend 18 years old so much for college
  • Then maybe colleges would reduce spending and lower tuition
  • Then maybe fewer marginal students will go to college
  • Then maybe culture will change and students will live 4 to a room
I think that would have been a reasonable compromise.