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Alex Tabarrok answers his critics:
I think that the Baumol effect is big but you also need an increase in demand to make it explain the gerat majority (95%+) of the increase in spending on healthcare and schooling. That is were Governments subsidizing demand contributes. Government does not subsidize demand for cars nearly as much as for schooling and healthcare.
If 95% of spending rise is dues to all the Baumol effect, we should ask what percent of the healthcare cost is direct labor? To look at a non the Baumol effect part of healthcare, drugs, drugs use very little direct labor, are drug prices are falling but very slowly.
So, I think it takes both rising demand and the Baumol effect to explain the increase in spedning.
BUT:
If it is 95%+ Baumol effect, since a lot of schooling healthcare seems to have such low bang for the buck. how do we lower demand AND increase efficiency.
Direct instruction and tutoring seems to work in schooling but there is little move in that direction AND is it totally irrational for a person to increase his life time consumption of non- healthcare stuff by say 12% and only use the most effective healthcare? I don't think that is irrational at all, the UK provides something like that though the NHS, though it provides much more than the one third that would save use 12% of spending.
BTW there have also been a sharp rise in costs of road/subway construction which is mechanizing fast.
He also did a blog post on the The Baumol Effect on Schooling and Medicine.
My comments:
What he says and seems correct to me is that the marginal cost of healthcare and schooling has gone up, and yes Government subsidies have made it worse. I think he is saying is that we are buying more healthcare beyond the growth in productivity. Some people assume that there is no productivity growth but there is, but we are spending more because we have more to spend and we desire to spend more so total spending is rising.
This hypothesis merges nicely with Robin Hanson's idea that we buy more healthcare in part to show how much we care, so we are now buying healthcare beyond the point where it even improves health, just because we want to spend more to show how much we care.