Widespread Misperceptions of Long-Term Attitude Change

Widespread misperceptions of long-term attitude change

Mondragon and Socialism

To me it seems silly for a socialist to cite Mondragon. When Mondragon partners vote they do not primarily have the good of society in mind but their own good. They do not hire all the worst workers just because they are earning below 50% of median Spanish Basque income, they hire good workers and contributors.

They are like unions/mercantilists; they would not balk at decreasing supply to increase their own income.  

They are  just as voters in that regard, voters are not always on the side of what is right and just. Take homeowners in San Francisco who think driving a few marginal people into homelessness is an acceptable price to pay to retain the character of their neighborhoods and keep their home values rising. Unions keep their income up and often become exclusive to the point where a job seeker needs pull to get a union job. Business owners will do the same when they have a chance, I'm sure that real-estate companies mainly in the business of owning rental properties vote with home owners to restrict building but they are few and they are counterbalanced by builders who want to build more. It is diversity that is a big benefit of economic freedom. 

The Kind of Racism I See

This is a response to David Henderson's blog post here:

Is Nikole Hannah-Jones Right?

This is kind of racism that I think really exists. Another example is the rate that young black men are being murdered in St Louis is very high and if the victims (and perps) were white we would be doing more about it.

Another little thing, I watch some basketball and track videos on youtube and youtube seems to offer a disproportionate amount of Larry Byrd, Pete Maravich, Matthew Boling, even Mac McClung (he's done little to earn that notoriety so far). The idea of a great white hope lives.

So people seem to think in racial lines, and if they are white like to see a white guy do well.

Part of it might be an underdog effect, like my mother told me her family loved to see Joe Lewis do well, seeing a poor black man beat the supposedly superior race. If there are no or few black doing well in a field people might cheer more for them.

How destructive the above racism is another question.

The Strong Desire to Blame a Human

The strong desire to blame a human is something to be resisted. 

This applies to:

• Opioids Purdue Pharma the Sackler family.
• White USAers blacks, black USAers whites
• Jobs immigrants
• Fentanyl China
• Covid also China
• Medical care insurance companies/drug companies

And of course much more.

Medical Things that Blacks Outperform Whites On

According to the CDC here (See table 2 page 9), at 31 weeks or less gestation black infant mortality is lower than for whites so it might be hard to change. The difference in infant mortality between Blacks and whites looks like it is not due to systemic racism in the healthcare system but due to accidents and practices in the home see links below.

Look at table 103 at ages of 90 and up. Black Americans 90 year and older have greater life expectancy than white Americans of the same age, so it looks like the difference in Black white life expectancy is mostly due to accidents and homicides and not due to systemic racism in the healthcare system or due to differences in overall health.   

And of course there is skin cancer.

Links:

The U.S. Is Failing in Infant Mortality, Starting at One Month Old

Record set for the earliest premature baby he is a black American baby born in Alabama

Sudden infant death and sleep practices in the Black community

/nvsr69/NVSR-69-7-508.pdf

https:/

/nvsr69/NVSR-69-7-508.pdf

Crime is too high in the USA

From How to Get Tough On Crime

Robbing someone on the street is not something that will appear sensible to someone whose alternative is to be an office worker making $70/hr.

Even more so if you have possibilities in the very high paying NBA or NFL, yet from what I've read, people in that position have about the same rate of crime as the age/gender/race demographic that they come from.

We have a huge crime problem (see below) and so we could afford to spend quite a but to address it and still be ahead, but we must think clearly at is and look coldly at the data:

Using standard demographic lifetable techniques, and assuming that recent incarceration rates remain unchanged, an estimated 1 of every 20 persons (5%) can be expected to serve time in prison during their lifetime. The lifetime chances of a person going to prison are higher for men (9%) than for women (1%) and higher for blacks (16%) and Hispanics (9%) than for whites (2%). At current levels of incarceration newborn black males in this country have a greater than a 1 in 4 chance of going to prison during their lifetimes, while Hispanic males have a 1 in 6 chance, and white males have a 1 in 23 chance of serving time.

I think legalizing all drugs without a prescription might help.

Up to and including murders among gang members which are considered “mutual-combat” in certain sub cultures. Which I’m sure sounds ridiculous to an upper class Yanqui, but was recently cited as a reason to drop charges by a prosecutor in Chicago.

That is an interesting point. I've said similar things. We'll not condemn Russian soldiers for killing Ukrainian combatants after the war in Ukraine is over so why go hard on such offences.
On the other hand cities that allow that to go on should be condemned. We give Gov the monopoly on force to Government to minimize such, if they aren't doing that they are failures and should be replaced.

Interesting Policy Poll

Interesting Policy Poll results here 

Great Article: Your Opponents Don't Agree with You

Your Opponents Don't Agree with You

Example people will say:

Pro-lifers don’t really think abortion is like murder. They just want to prohibit abortion because they hate women. (Seen on the internet.)

He says, no they really do think abortion is murder.

Repost of: Angus Deaton Deaths of Despair

 Angus Deaton Deaths of Despair

New Hampshire was the highest earning state in 2016 and number 2 in opioid OD deaths.

Dear Angus Deaton with all due respect you might consider reassessing your deaths of despair theory. It never made much sense to me, there is in fact some evidence that people drink and drug more when they have more income and therefore access to booze and drugs, which is BTW a problem for my advocacy of legalization but I think the positives would out weigh the negatives.

Related: Health Insurance Might not be Good for Everyone

Added 2018-01-08  see here

In the preferred estimates, changes in economic conditions account for less than one-tenth of the rise in drug and opioid-involved mortality rates. The contribution of economic factors is even less when accounting for plausible selection on unobservables, with even a small amount of remaining confounding factors being sufficient to entirely eliminate the relationship. 

Added 2022-10-19

Some people seem to miss that variance among people means that prosperity can lead some people to engage more in behaviors that people like Angus Deaton and me consider destructive. This is from Freakonomics post called Retirement Kills.

Josef ZWEIMULLER: I mean, actually, what we find in our study is that among blue-collar workers, we see that workers who retire earlier have higher mortality rates. And these effects are pretty large.

            ... 

Mo WANG: Working actually gives you a way to structure life and that’s very important. Usually, it’s interesting you see people travel right after they retire, but then after like one or two years, people just sit at home watching TV.

This relates to opioid deaths in that fentanyl has made opioids cheaper and more accessible, which is a wealth effect, and so we should expect more use among those who like opioids.

Also this tweet from Robin Hanson seems applicable:

I missed this when it out a year ago, but this article pointed me to this key result: Per capita US drug deaths have steadily doubled every decade 4 times in a row, R^2=0.99! Even as particular drug death rates far from steady. 

This graph from here https://takimag.com/article/white_privilege_vs_white_death_steve_sailer/ makes it seem like the trend started with cohorts born after 1945. Which suggest the trend has actually been going for ~55 years, which suggests it will continue for another ~3 decades, after which mortality will be ~8x higher!

The trend looks much more a result of growing prosperity than of Despair. Shout it form the house tops.

From the MR Comments on Texas History

From comments on MarginalRevolution.com:

Luka 2021-12-01 00:48:42

I'm going to defend Texas, something I rarely get to do. Texas is extremely old, it's history goes back centuries. The name is Spanish and it was at one point part of the Spanish Empire and then independent Mexico. The indigenous people of the region were dominated by the fairly violent Comanches who were a persistent thorn in the side of both the Spanish and the Mexicans. Conflict between whites and natives long predates 1836. Some of the land confiscated seems to have been done before independent Texas.

When Mexico became independent they encouraged "Anglo" migration in part for economic reasons but also to counter the Comanches. Indeed, for as much as you may decry American treatment of indigenous peoples, of which there is much to decry, Mexico was fighting them until the 1930s when the American Indian wars were in effect closed by about 1890(a few minor raids happened after, but historians generally say the war was over in 1890). I've never really understood how the nations of Latin America have seemingly gotten a pass on their treatment of natives and land rights but my guess is that populations are just much more mixed so blame is harder to pinpoint.

On the issue of land and how it was acquired it should be acknowledged that while some land was taken via conquest or illegally seized in defiance of treaties from natives, an enormous amount of the American West and even colonial lands were simply purchased at prices natives willingly accepted absent military threat. I've read that about $800 million was spent by the Federal government alone from independence until around the end of the 19th century. Thats quit a bit more than was spent on Louisiana($15 million), Alaska($7.2 million), Gadsden ($10 million), Florida($5 million) and Mexico(even after the War the USA still paid them $15 million) combined.

From the column. "The book proudly defends the broader sweep of Texas history, including the taking of Texas from Mexico and then the absorption of Texas into the United States"

Thats a strange way of saying "Texas declared independence, later to voluntarily join the USA". Mexico under Santa Anna was headed toward military dictatorship and in many ways was already there. A number of other Mexican states were also in open rebellion under his rule. In the long run the history of Mexico makes it clear that leaving was the best route for Texas both economically and politically. The Mexican revolution(1 million+ dead) was perhaps more deadly than the American Civil War(~750K dead) and that was just one of many internal military conflicts they suffered, to say nothing of their lack of true democracy until 2000.

I think Texas has an interesting history, perhaps they need to tone it down with their state pride, they share many of the serious issues both the nation had in general, and the CSA in particular. Overall, not a bad column, I guess. Its just always surprising to see someone like Tyler, who is generally libertarian and usually pro-America embrace the more critical and revisionist historical take on the USA. Self reflection is good, but it has gotten to the point of self hatred in too many quarters.

The Decline in the Male Employment Rate

This has been an Econ topic of discussion the last few day:

Larry Summers: There is some social phenomenon which I suspect explains non work, non marriage, deaths of despair, general alienation and, I suspect, the rise of reactionary populism. It should be a major task of social science to understand it.

It seems like these are caused by the obvious things but that no one wants to acknowledge.

Non-work: Smaller and more affluent families are more willing and able to support a non-worker. Also black males have become a larger part of the population and at least since the 1960 have had a more sensible (Keynesian 15 hour work week) view of work leisure balance. 

Marriage: The most obvious reason for fall in marriage/rise single motherhood stands, women have better options now than staying with less desirable men.

I was talking to group of committed Christians recently and I mentioned that today if a girl gets pregnant people say she not make a second mistake, and surprisingly to me, they agreed that shoe shouldn't.

Even very religious people want their daughters to go to college, and not just to meat a nice husband but to build a career.

Deaths of despair:  Deaths of despair is IMHO a myth. While it's true that WV was number one in opioid deaths New Hampshire was number two. We should admit that some people really love to get high, some more that life itself. Robin Hanson has noted that drug overdoes deaths have doubled each decade at least since 1970 and maybe 1940.

James Kwak - Economism Should We Let Lawyers Run the Economy

Law professor James Kwak coined the term economism, contending that economists have too much influence in policy.

Economists who study interaction between supply and demand warned us that the legal (lawyer) method to suppression drug use wouldn't. Same with rent control

But you attack "economism",rather than an NIT/UBI just make it illegal to work for less that $x and it'll will work.

Kwak's attack on economists and "economism" says let's not go with people who study the economic trade offs but use the legal approach and just make what we don't want illegal. Make illegal to sell for less or more or at all. Not a good idea IMHO.

More on Student Debt Forgiveness

This is in response to the discussion here of student loan forgiveness.

From here:

"Most low-income students attending full time, full year (86 percent) received some financial aid, and the average amount received by low-income students (calculated including those with no aid) was about $6,100."

So why not:

 - Keep and maybe increase Financial aid.

 - Prosecute lenders and schools that commit fraud.

 - Get the government completely out of the lending business.

 - Probably too many students are going to college reduce the acceptance rates to state schools.

BTW the trades do not always require any schooling beyond high school and can be very lucrative. It's often much more lucrative to be one of the smartest plumbers around, who can run a business, than an average person in a job that requires a college degree. 

Also, tuition rates in state schools is a state issue but with more financial aid maybe it should be higher, that is the affluent should pay the full costs of college, which BTW are amazingly high. Spending on college by states and students can and should be cut. Florida spends much less per student year than most states and so there is a model to follow.

Social Security Beginnings

Links:

Why Is Social Security Regressive by Chris Pope.

The Twilight of Social Insurance also by Chris Pope

Both discus the beginnings of Social Security and how we arrived at the odd structure.

Some States spend Double what other state spend without noticeable Differences

Some states:

Look at Florida in figure 10 here, for education. Maybe more state governments should follow Florida's example.

Across US states, the min prison cost is in Alabama at $14K/yr, max is New York at $69K/yr. Do you doubt that the NY ones are nicer here? I really do not know how much worse it is in prisoon in Alabama verses New York.

Some state data on recidivism here.

College Loan Forgiveness

Before they Biden administration enacted loan forgiveness, I had been asking people if they'd take this deal:

Forgive $10K in college debt but with the agreement that congress starts to phase out the loan program by capping the money lent to say $5k/yr/student and lowering the cap by $1k every 4 years.

• Plus no loans to students studying low demand majors
• And no more loans for private schools except those in the top 200 colleges/Universities in post school job prospects?
• Then maybe once all loans are private and disposable in bankruptcy no one will lend 18 years old so much for college
• Then maybe colleges would reduce spending and lower tuition
• Then maybe fewer marginal students will go to college
• Then maybe culture will change and students will live 4 to a room

I think that would have been a reasonable compromise.

Has the World Passed “Peak Agricultural Land”

 Big news and it's good news for nature lovers here:

Has the world passed “peak agricultural land”?

Even if we are not past it we are will soon. Worldwide per acre yields have been growing faster than world population for a long time now (maybe 30 years). And since the per acre yields are still multiple times higher in the developed countries there is still plenty of room for improvement even with much improvement via plant breeding and technology.

Of course as hunger becomes less of a problem obesity becomes more but that is a less bad problem to have.

Easter

Genesis 3:15 And I will put enmity

between you and the woman,

and between your offspring and hers;

he will crush your head,

and you will strike his heel.”

Isa 52:13 See, my servant will act wisely he will be raised and lifted up and highly exalted. 14 Just as there were many who were appalled at him —his appearance was so disfigured beyond that of any human being and his form marred beyond human likeness 15 so he will sprinkle many nations, and kings will shut their mouths because of him.

For what they were not told, they will see, and what they have not heard, they will understand.

Isa 53:1 Who has believed our message and to whom has the arm of the Lord been revealed? 2 He grew up before him like a tender shoot, and like a root out of dry ground. He had no beauty or majesty to attract us to him, nothing in his appearance that we should desire him.

Psalm 22:1 My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?

Why are you so far from saving me,

so far from my cries of anguish?

2 My God, I cry out by day, but you do not answer,

by night, but I find no rest. 

3 Yet you are enthroned as the Holy One;

you are the one Israel praises.

4 In you our ancestors put their trust;

they trusted and you delivered them.

5 To you they cried out and were saved;

in you they trusted and were not put to shame.

3 He was despised and rejected by mankind, a man of suffering, and familiar with pain. Like one from whom people hide their faces he was despised, and we held him in low esteem.

Psalm 22:1 6 But I am a worm and not a man,

Isa 53:4 Surely he took up our pain and bore our suffering, yet we considered him punished by God, stricken by him, and afflicted. 5 But he was pierced for our transgressions, he was crushed for our iniquities; the punishment that brought us peace was on him, and by his wounds we are healed.

6 We all, like sheep, have gone astray, each of us has turned to our own way; and the Lord has laid on him the iniquity of us all.

7 He was oppressed and afflicted, yet he did not open his mouth; he was led like a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before its shearers is silent, so he did not open his mouth.

8 By oppression and judgment he was taken away. Yet who of his generation protested? For he was cut off from the land of the living; for the transgression of my people he was punished.

9 He was assigned a grave with the wicked, and with the rich in his death, though he had done no violence, nor was any deceit in his mouth.

10 Yet it was the Lord’s will to crush him and cause him to suffer, and though the Lord makes his life an offering for sin, he will see his offspring and prolong his days,

and the will of the Lord will prosper in his hand.

Psalm 22:6 But I am a worm and not a man,

scorned by everyone, despised by the people.

Psalm 22:7 All who see me mock me;

they hurl insults, shaking their heads.

Psalm 22:8 “He trusts in the Lord,” they say,

“let the Lord rescue him.

Let him deliver him,

since he delights in him.”

Psalm 22:9 Yet you brought me out of the womb;

you made me trust in you, even at my mother’s breast.

Psalm 22:10 From birth I was cast on you;

from my mother’s womb you have been my God.

Psalm 22:11 Do not be far from me,

for trouble is near

and there is no one to help.

Psalm 22:12 Many bulls surround me;

strong bulls of Bashan encircle me.

Psalm 22:13 Roaring lions that tear their prey

open their mouths wide against me.

Psalm 22:14 I am poured out like water,

Psalm 22:15 My mouth is dried up like a potsherd,

and my tongue sticks to the roof of my mouth;

you lay me in the dust of death.

Psalm 22:16 Dogs surround me,

a pack of villains encircles me;

they pierce my hands and my feet.

Psalm 22:17 All my bones are on display;

people stare and gloat over me.

Psalm 22:18 They divide my clothes among them

and cast lots for my garment.

Psalm 22:19 But you, Lord, do not be far from me.

You are my strength; come quickly to help me.

Psalm 22:20 Deliver me from the sword,

my precious life from the power of the dogs.

Psalm 22:21 Rescue me from the mouth of the lions;

save me from the horns of the wild oxen.

Isa 53:11 After he has suffered, he will see the light of life and be satisfied; by his knowledge my righteous servant will justify many, and he will bear their iniquities.12  Therefore I will give him a portion among the great, and he will divide the spoils with the strong,  because he poured out his life unto death, and was numbered with the transgressors.

For he bore the sin of many,

and made intercession for the transgressors.

===========================================

Psalm 22: 22 I will declare your name to my people;

in the assembly I will praise you.

Psalm 22: 23 You who fear the Lord, praise him!

All you descendants of Jacob, honor him!

Revere him, all you descendants of Israel!

Psalm 22: 24 For he has not despised or scorned

Psalm 22: the suffering of the afflicted one;

he has not hidden his face from him

but has listened to his cry for help.

Psalm 22: 25 From you comes the theme of my praise in the great assembly;

before those who fear you I will fulfill my vows.

Psalm 22: 26 The poor will eat and be satisfied;

those who seek the Lord will praise him—

may your hearts live forever!

Psalm 22: 27 All the ends of the earth

will remember and turn to the Lord,

and all the families of the nations

will bow down before him,

Psalm 22: 28 for dominion belongs to the Lord

and he rules over the nations.

Psalm 22: 29 All the rich of the earth will feast and worship;

all who go down to the dust will kneel before him—

those who cannot keep themselves alive.

Psalm 22: 30 Posterity will serve him;

future generations will be told about the Lord.

Psalm 22: 31 They will proclaim his righteousness,

declaring to a people yet unborn:

He has done it!

Matt 28: 1 After the Sabbath, at dawn on the first day of the week, Mary Magdalene and the other Mary went to look at the tomb.

2 There was a violent earthquake, for an angel of the Lord came down from heaven and, going to the tomb, rolled back the stone and sat on it. 3 His appearance was like lightning, and his clothes were white as snow. 4 The guards were so afraid of him that they shook and became like dead men.

5 The angel said to the women, “Do not be afraid, for I know that you are looking for Jesus, who was crucified. 6 He is not here; he has risen, just as he said. Come and see the place where he lay. 7 Then go quickly and tell his disciples: ‘He has risen from the dead and is going ahead of you into Galilee. There you will see him.’ Now I have told you.”

Ethics and Human Challenge Trial

The discussion here, lead me to following thoughts.

 I think the key with human challenge trial is that the people infected would be volunteers.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, I do not think that letting someone die is equal to killing them. 

Unlike Bernie Sanders, I do not think reducing taxes on the rich is giving money to the rich. 

Though I support a UBI, unlike Bernie Sanders,  I do not think not taxing people and giving the money to people less rich is equal to inflicting poverty on them.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, I do not think not providing healthcare to people is equal to denying them healthcare. Though it might make sense to provide cheap stuff like vaccinations and many other very high bang for the bucks (trauma care infant care, some meds) things paid for through taxes, BUT at our discretion.

Gruber Video on Healthcare

Gruber video on healthcare.

He starts with the difference in white and black infant mortality and blames it on healthcare access, but he ignores that a black baby born in the USA at 31 week of gestation or less is more likely to survive than a white baby at the same gestation.  See table 2 page 9 here.

Hispanic babies have about the same survival rates as white babies.
USA babies survive to 1 month as much as EU born babies.
It does not look like healthcare.

Also there are important differences between a tax and health insurance premium.

BTW According the US census, at over 90 years (see table 103) so it does not look like overall differences in life expectancy are mostly due to access to healthcare. Also the 8 America's study would give a little evidence of that also.

Scott Sumner's most Right Wing Positions

I love them all: 

Scott Sumner's most Right Wing Positions

Once we have CBDCs, my anti-FDIC view will no longer be my most right wing opinion. And after Covid, I’m not sure my abolish the FDA view is all that right wing. Abolish the public school system? The teachers unions are already hard at work on that objective. Abolish zoning laws and allow nuclear waste dumps right next to residential housing? Heck, even Matt Yglesias seems sorta OK with that idea. Abolish the minimum wage? Some of the Nordic countries don’t even have one. Privatize fire departments? Denmark got there first.