Wednesday, June 21, 2017

My Playing off Arnold Kling's Clarifying his Null Hypotheses on Schooling

Here is Arnold answering: The null hypothesis: do I really believe it?

My null hypothesis says that spending more inflation adjusted on schooling than was spent in 1960 has no positive effect on education. (that's about 1/3 of what is spent today.)

Also that only a tiny fraction (perhaps .1%) of schools are good or bad schools. The rest are judged good or bad have good and bad students. And so parents should relax should only try to avoid the worst .1% of schools and not pay more for a home in a “good” school district.

Also my mother has told me that her parents went to school for just 1 year, yet they where educated. They were not superstitious as many where in their era. They could read and write and do arithmetic. They read books. They owned and ran a barber shop. they speculated in real-estate (but lost most but not all of it in the great depression) and sent their son to Brown University.

School is not only place people learn.

Perhaps 3 years of formal schooling would be enough for most people. Never the less in the modern world we would need something for them to do so maybe keeping most in school to 16 is a good idea, not so much for education but to keep them out of trouble.

The Amish drop out early and do OK.

For a modern example, the guy who invented this car claims to have dropped out of school at 14 years old.

Also, if we cannot teach children more and it looks like we cannot, we should focus on teaching the most valuable stuff.

Friday, June 9, 2017

What are the Best Things we could do for the Poor Through Government

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Plan from the Niskanen Center: Universal Catastrophic Coverage

This plan from the Niskanen center: Universal Catastrophic Coverage — Or How the Senate Can Fix the AHCA

Is similar to my compromise proposal.
A Healthcare Compromise

I think that they are a little to people with above average income but I like it otherwise. They say it would be cheaper than the ACA. So why are we stuck with the ACA and AHCA?

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

USA Healthcare Facts

In 2003, of the roughly 3,900 nonfederal, short-term, acute care general hospitals in the United States, the majority—about 62 percent—were nonprofit. The rest included government hospitals (20 percent) and for-profit hospitals (18 percent). In exchange for tax-exemptions, estimated to total $12.6 billion in 2002, nonprofit hospitals are expected to provide community benefits.

Percent of national health expenditures for prescription drugs: 9.8% (2014)

Many health insurance companies are nonprofits including some of the state Blue Cross organizations. see: Google search for percent non profit health insurance.

It's Surprising How Few Countries Have National, Single Payer, Health Care Systems

It is surprising how little, expensive healthcare contributes to health. See here. (buy expensive I mean beyond vaccinations and antibiotics).

Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Trust and Cost Disease

I have been wondering if loss of trust is a significant driver of our rapidly increasing spend for schooling and medical care. Spending is increasing rapidly and yet the teachers and MD's are less happy with their jobs and the patients are not happier with the service. See here.

We do not trust the teachers as much as we used to and so we test more and regiment them more. We don't trust MD's and so we build rules and bureaucracy to regiment them. Part of that is inevitable in a 3rd party payer system but it might be increased by this international competition. All the stories that tell us how poorly the USA does on PISA and life expectancy as compared to the other developed countries when there are many non schooling non health care things that effect PISA scores and life expectancy.

BTW As far as schooling goes, does PISA really test anything important? On PPP GDP per capita USA Ranked 6th, 44% more than Finland, maybe the Finns should change their schools to look more like ours? Maybe the PISA tests are too close to an IQ test tell us much about the quality of our schools.

Monday, April 24, 2017

On Paul Romer's Idea of Charter Cities

We should lead by example and make Brownsville or Detroit charter cities. The current residents would keep their US citizenship but newcomers would need a passport and VISA to get into the rest of the USA.
A lot of capital is going to waste in Detroit. we would people to fill Detroit, but most voters don't want more immigrants and they know that you cann't keep people in the area that you want. I have heard that programs that bring in immigrant MD's to places like Iowa have a problem with them moving. 

But I don't see anyone taking this up, such is nationalism. So Paul Romer should understand that it is unlikely to be accepted elsewhere. Argentina might be the best bet because they seem to have an open boarders policy now.