Recipe for Italian Pepper Biscuits

Pepper biscuits

1 ½ t yeast

237 grams warm water

580 grams flour

1 t salt/about 7 grams

3 t coarsely ground black peppercorns (I use a mortar and pestle)

1 t crushed red pepper

1 t Fennel seed

200 grams olive oil

Dissolve yeast in water. 

Add flour, salt, pepper, crushed red pepper, fennel seed onto a mixer. Mix for about a minute and stop. This is because dough should not be completely uniform so that the final product will have varying texture.

Add the oil and mix until everything is incorporated but the dough should not be uniform. 

Remove from the mixer and knead for a few minutes.

Place in oiled bowl, turn to coat, cover with a towel and let rise until doubled in bulk.

Preheat the oven to 400º. 

Split the dough into 32 pieces and roll into ropes about 6 inches long. 

Place on a baking sheet and let rise for 20 minutes.

Brush with oil, sprinkle with coarsely ground salt and bake for 12 to 15 minutes or until lightly browned.

Designing Better Health Insurance

I've been thinking of taking a shot at designing a health insurance plan closer to ideal. 

So far:

These are without regard to whether it is provided by Government or through an insurance company or some other organization.

It should be lifetime.

It should probably cover prenatal care and trauma care as preventive care.

If it were non-Government issued insurance this brings up the issue of when to sign up for it. Mothers would have to select into a plan at first sign of pregnancy or Government could subsidize those born with an expensive lifetime condition or who contract one before adulthood.

It should include a death benefit, disability insurance and cover long term care. The death benefit should decrease with age.

It should not pay for small things like MD appointments but should pay for and or require preventive care that has solid evidence of net reduction of disease.

The contract should start at conception or rather when the mother becomes aware that she is pregnant.

For a person/family with median age lifetime income and median lifetime healthcare it should pay for nothing until they get over median lifetime expenditures exceed median lifetime expenditure. Some subsidy of low earners might be needed.

It should do something along the lines of price negotiation for emergency care on behalf of the customer.

If a person goes outside the US for care they should get some of the savings.

If a patient forgoes some care, say at the end of life they should be rewarded like in Singapore.

I will add to this post as I think of more issues.

A Political Science Mystery

It seems to me that the populations of Vermont and North Dakota are very similar. Both are rural states with significant farm sectors. I'd guess that that the voters in those states prefer similar policy, so I am mystified that Vermont voted 64.4% for Harris and very similar North Dakota voted 67.5% for Trump.

What's up with that?

The Slowing

We saw a slowing of per capita growth and an increase in income and wealth inequality starting in the early 1970's.

I present a few things that might be driving this trend.

One accelerating inflation

The 1970 was the end of a long period of accelerating inflation. Accelerating or unexpected inflation tends to help what I call commodity labor (that is worker that do jobs that almost anyone can do with a few hours of training).

This is because it fools businesses to thinking there is more demand for their products than there is and so to hire more employees.

Part 2 NIMBY

Some have contended that the reduction of Government action in the 1970's slowed economic growth and increased income inequality and lower quality of life for bottom 30% of earners. but it appears to that NIMBYism and a reduction in law enforcement are primarily to blame.

Here's an anonymous quote on the subject:

"Seeing the price of TVs falling down and down- and understanding that was capitalism." "Seeing the price of a flat in London going up and up and up- but being told this was also capitalism"

NIMBY has made it more expensive to build anything. Bryan Caplan says the top economist studying the rise in housing costs estimate that the typical US home is 2x as expensive due to NIMBY. NIMBY, though mostly a left generated movement is even slowing the expansion of green power.

Letting NIMBY's block owners from building is transferring some ownership to voters. In the 1970's people started to gain power to stop even residential building.

Here is Matt Rognelie of Massachusetts Institute of Technology answering the question of what is driving the growth in inequality he lands on NIMBY.

Not only does NIMBY make housing more expensive but also construction is large employer of men without college degrees and has historically paid more than the manufacturing jobs. 

It also increases inequality by keeping low earners from moving to places where pay is higher.

3 Crime

There was a rapid increase in measured crime and disorder in the mid 1960s. It might be measurement error (some contend that murders with Black victims were under reported prior to 1965), but it might be partly due to the Democratic, in attempt to reduce police and prison brutality went more with reduced sentences and getting criminals off, to punish the system rather than focusing all their efforts on reforming police and prisons. leading to more crime in poor areas degrading life and increasing divides that would impact inequality in standard of living. BTW it might even be that more police would lead to less abuse rather than more.

The optimal Tax rate for the Very Rich is Zero

The optimal tax rate for those who spend a small percentage of their income and invest the rest, like many billionaires, is 0.

Pigovian, LVT and progressive consumption taxes would be better than income and corporate taxes

Monopoly Pricing

People seem to assume that a monopoly's optimal price is much higher than it is. A monopoly business optimally prices where marginal revenue = marginal cost which is way below were people seem to imagine.

(BTW IMHO Governments can and do sometimes price much above that, they have less motivation to maximize goods and services or profits.)

Even an unregulated electric utility would probably not price much higher than they do with regulation and also since almost all monopoly utilities are regulated it is hard to know what the price should/would be

Here is a link presenting Joseph Schumpeter's theory that monopolies produce more innovation and so do not hurt consumers on net.

Getting the Direction Wrong

Interesting debate here:

Is The American Dream Alive and Well?

David Leonhardt and Bhaskar Sunkara often get the direction wrong on many of the points that they make. Examples are drug deaths, divorce and lower rates of marriage. Those are more likely the result more wealth and opportunity. Let's face the awful fact that when some people have more ability to get drugs they use more and when women can earn a good living they can be more selective of whom they marry and stay with.

And when David Leonhardt and Bhaskar Sunkara did get the direction right that is on crime, a big part of the cause is on their side. Poor law enforcement in places where democrats control law enforcement (though the illegality of drugs is probably also a factor).

Let's try to stop crime before it occurs like some have argued has been done in New York city.